A Fist Full of Dollars: The Best Way to Change Regimes in Iran

I found this after I was inspired by the State of the Union Address. It's an interesting proposal:

Commentary, Shahla Azizi,
Pacific News Service, Feb 01, 2005

TEHRAN--Everyone here is wondering whether President George Bush's threats of military action against Iran are real or just rhetoric. But if Bush is serious about regime change in Iran, he should try the power of the bribe.

Iran's insistence on continuing uranium enrichment -- apparently suspended while negotiations continue with the IAEA -- likely poses more of a threat to the world in Bush's mind than did Saddam Hussein's imaginary WMDs. But military action is not the way to bring about regime change here.

The United States should look at history in order to learn how to deal with Iran. In the CIA-backed coup of 1953, when the popular nationalist Mohammad Mossadegh was ousted and the Shah reinstated on the throne, the Americans succeeded with literally a fist full of dollars. Estimates of the cost of the covert Operation Ajax, including the bribes, range from $200,000 to $20 million. Senior CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt (grandson of Teddy) was assigned to overthrow the democratically elected prime minister. He succeeded mainly by bribing influential figures, staging street violence and planting false stories in the newspapers.

With 70 percent of civil servants living below the poverty line (a conservative government estimate), money is the best way to penetrate Iran. If the United States just spent a small portion of its military budget in Iraq on bribes in Iran, the regime would crumble.

From a distance, Hezbollah zealots may seem too idealistic to be bought. But those of us who live here know that every little infraction can be overlooked after a small bribe. If I am caught with alcohol on my breath, for example, I know a bribe is the easiest way out. There are not many here who cannot be bought, even among the hardcore conservative supporters of the regime. Very few religious zealots here are true believers like those of Al Qaeda. Zealotry, being state sanctioned, has become false.

The regime is very unpopular. Its foot-soldiers, the Ansar Hezbollah and the Bassij forces, are not invited to share the enormous wealth that the elite mullahs have amassed. The majority of the very small number of people loyal to the regime are poor. The economic system only allows a very few at the top to become rich. Even the theological students of Qom, who are to form the next generation of mullahs, have voiced their disappointment with the rampant nepotism and corruption that exist at the top levels of the theocracy.

The reformists, who won the previous presidential elections, were so impotent in the face of the unelected Guardian Council and those who wield real power, like the millionaire-mullah Rafsanjani, that the people have lost all hope of changing things democratically. Many of the 80-plus percent who voted for Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president, now look for outside help to rid the country of the mullahs. The majority of the population consists of under-25-year-olds who are frustrated and unhappy, and who use the Internet and satellite TV as outlets. Universities are over-crowded and the unemployment rate surpasses 20 percent.

Opposition leaders, university activists, journalists and bloggers who have dared voice criticism of the regime are in jail. Iranians desire a regime change but feel impotent to bring it about themselves. Most would welcome the help of the United States.

The security forces and the vigilante groups can be bought to look the other way when people revolt. Street uprisings can be provoked with the use of Iranian opposition satellite T.V based in Los Angeles, which has a huge following here and has played a big role in uprisings in the recent past. Important players in the armed forces can be bribed and promised amnesty if they side with the people, or, with the right amount of money, even encouraged to stage a coup. Iran, unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, has a full-fledged opposition movement already demanding a referendum to change the constitution. American dollars would fuel it and give it the tools and courage necessary to act.

The regime is so unpopular, so ready to fall, that instead of military action, spending a little money to buy some key figures and its foot soldiers is the simplest, cheapest and most efficacious way to bring about change in Iran.

PNS contributor Shahla Azizi is a Western-educated Iranian American who lives in Tehran with her two children. Her name has been changed.